Standardizing the performance evaluation of short-term wind prediction models

Henrik Madsen, P. Pinson, G. Kariniotakis, Henrik Aa. Nielsen, Torben Skov Nielsen

AbstractShort-term wind power prediction is a primary requirement for efficient large-scale integration of wind generation in power systems and electricity markets. The choice of an appropriate prediction model among the numerous available models is not trivial, and has to be based on an objective evaluation of model performance.
This paper proposes a standardized protocol for the evaluation of short-term wind-poser preciction systems. A number of reference prediction models are also described, and their use for performance comparison is analysed. The use of the protocol is demonstrated using results from both on-shore and off-shore wind forms. The work was developed in the frame of the Anemos project (EU R&D project) where the protocol has been used to evaluate more than 10 prediction systems.
KeywordsWind power forecasting, prediction error, performance evaluation, evaluation protocol.
TypeJournal paper [With referee]
JournalWind Engineering
Year2005    Vol. 29    No. 6    pp. 475-489
BibTeX data [bibtex]
IMM Group(s)Mathematical Statistics


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